Tuesday, February 19, 2013

Where There's Smoke, There's Technicalities

Those familiar with the ongoing Ryan Braun PED saga tend to believe he's a cheater. That his suspension was overturned on appeal is irrelevant because he, as his many detractors will say, won on a technicality. His public image was not helped by his name appearing in the books of known PED peddler Anthony Bosch. The smoke-fire idiom is in full effect with Braun and it's difficult to argue in his favor. But as a overly charitable soul and avid Brewer fan, that's precisely what I'm going to do.

Ryan Braun donated urine prior to Game One of the 2011 NLDS for drug testing. Upon examination it was determined his sample had an absurdly high testosterone-epitestosterone ratio. This generally happens when people take PEDs, which in Braun's case was cause for a 50-game suspension. He miraculously avoided suspension after winning his appeal. The convention wisdom is Braun got off on a technicality and the independent arbitrator that ruled in his favor was insane (and later fired by MLB). You fail a drug test because you cheated, end of story. Then again, maybe not.

Where there's smoke, there's fire, but the fire might be different that you would expect. Though I cannot prove Braun is innocent (and I have my doubts) that fact he won his appeal warrants far more favor for his case than it currently receives. Maybe, just maybe, his victorious appeal is evidence of innocence. Just as you don't fail a test without cheating, you don't win an appeal without a good case. The Braun saga is especially complicated because both things happened to him. Even so, he at least raises a reasonable doubt to his guilt. If you are still adamant that Braun is a cheater that got off on a technicality, I would question your contention that technicalities are bad. In fact, the opposite is true.

The implication of drug testing is that players are guilty until proven innocent. Though this diametrically opposed to the American legal system, the prevalence of doping in high stakes athletic competition makes it a defensible evil. It also makes it extremely important that the rights of the players are vigilantly protected. With massive lumps of money and reputations on the line, strict adherence to due process is absolutely critical, even if it means a guilty person goes unpunished (though I'm not referring to Braun as he's clearly innocent).

The crux of Braun's argument was that the chain of custody with his urine sample was broken. Instead of immediately going to a FedEx it spent the weekend hanging out in the basement of the sample collector. The protocol is that samples are to immediately be taken to FedEx to be shipped the next day. Does this process matter? Yes, and quite a bit. What if the sample was in his house for one week? One month? One year? What if you, humble reader of the blog, failed a drug test at work and later learned your sample was hanging around some dude's basement for a weekend? Does that mean you did not take drugs? No. Does it mean your sample is valid evidence of wrongdoing? Absolutely not. Your right to a fair trail is of utmost importance and anything that compromises that must be discarded. This is how Braun won his appeal, and guilty or not, is absolutely what should have happened.

Finally, let's all just cool it on declaring people cheaters. Gio Gonzalez of the Nationals appeared in the same books as Braun and quickly issued a denial. Those that appeared in the Biogenesis books did so because they were taking PEDs, except for players like Gio Gonzalez that did not receive and PEDs from Biogenesis. Sometimes people actually tell the truth about not cheating. Until everyone is undoubtedly lying, maybe we'd be better holding off judgement until they're proven guilty.

Sunday, February 10, 2013

The Myth of Clutch

The concept of clutch is one facet of sports where I believe I am correct and every one else is mistaken. This is to say that I do not believe that certain athletes have the ability to raise their performance when the game is on the line and their team needs a big play to get the win. There are several compelling reason for this, but in the interest of posting something on this blog I'm going to focus on one.

The common perception of clutch is that it only exists in high-leverage situations. For example, a classic clutch scenario is when a football team is down by six points with the ball on their 20 yard line and 90 seconds to play. If the team scores, they'll most likely win the game (unless they're the Seahawks). If they don't score, they'll certainly lose. Thus, a QB that can lead you on a game winning drive is the guy you want on your team because he comes through when it really counts. The problem with this definition of clutch is that it's far, far too narrow. When you broaden the scope you quickly realize that pretty much every situation in a high-profile sports game in clutch. The idea of "coming though when it counts" is highly flawed because it always counts. A certain performance by the current backup QB of the Seahawks demonstrates this perfectly.

Matt Flynn became an unrestricted free agent after the 2011 NFL season. That year the Packers had everything wrapped up by Week 16 after tearing through the regular season. This allow the Packers to rest starters for the last game of the season against Detroit Lions, a team that was playing to win as they had playoff seeding considerations. The most notable Packer on the bench was Aaron Rodgers, which gave Flynn a golden opportunity to make himself lots of money in the off-season. With a big contract on the line Flynn threw for 480 yards and a team record 6 touchdowns. To cap it off, he led the Packers to a game-winning touchdown with 16 seconds left. Flynn ended up signing a 3-year, $19.5 mil contract with Seattle in March of 2012.

Few people will consider Flynn's performance clutch, but it's hard to find a better example of excellence when so much is on the line. What's more, these hidden clutch performances happen constantly. For starters, there is a tremendous amount of pressure that comes with playing in front of 70,000 fans and millions more on TV. There is also the issue of professional sports being extraordinarily competitive. Clutch situation or not, if you're not playing well you're off the team. A few dropped passes by the wide receiver that's 5th on the depth chart in a pre-season game could be the difference between making the roster and selling cars. This is to say the clutch exists and every athlete on a professional roster is clutch.

Other reasons I do not believe in clutch include the difficulty of proving it exists and the fact that the most clutch athletes also tend to be the best athletes. Assuming there are comments, I'll expand on these ideas more later.

Toodles!